Sunday, June 28, 2009

World War 3

The Definition Of World War
The definition of war is not disputed much until non-traditional wars became prevalent in the news such as recent culture clashes combined with the infamous guerilla tactics, terrible terrorism or within sub-state organized crime syndication against civilized societies. However, what constitues "World War" could be disputed on a philosophical and terminological level. Is it war that reaches around the globe? Is it war that includes all major nations be involved on some level? At what point of conflict does a battle become a "world battle" such as war amongst the world?

The specific word that is very vague or grey in the usage is the "world" in World War. Why was Napoleon's conquests or other such expansions of power using brute military force and strategy such as Genghis Khan's empire considered to be "world" events worthy of a title of World War? Is it the technological advances in warfar? Is it the speed at which information is disseminated to the masses through the news wires? Was it the sheer world impact of the first World War had upon the global status quo or was it the fact that a globalized world finally existed at the time that the first battle began during this so-called Great War, the War To End All Wars? Or is it just a mere creation of the concept of what a World War is that caused the term to come forth into our nomenclature of conflicts?

I do not know the preclusions of the etymology of the usage of "World War," but I do know that the future global conflicts may evolve into a new type of conflict encompassing our previous meaning of World War much like the Cold War and the aftermath of the Cold War did in bringing ideological warfar and culture clashes to the forefront. So, will World War 3 even be called World War 3? Doubtful, but if such a succession of events were ever to arrive at nearly the same micro-timeframe synchronization in human events that would push us to label it as a World War, then it would be labeled as such and be very deadly as such. World War 3 will involve terrorism, guerilla, biological, and chemical warfare and will most certainly involve a nuclear blast. World War 4 or 5 would be much more likely to be fought against or with artificially intelligent machines capable of near psuedo-sentient behavior, but World War 3 will definitely happen much too soon for AI to play a major role in the warfare. Nonetheless, WW3 will be devastating, real, and severe if it were to happen. The question lies not when or if World War 3 will happen, but whether or not humankind has overcome the inevitability of human tribal nature through the use of organized conflicts for power. Are we at a point where the laws of MAD will always force us into a Cold War, or will we actually press the fire button this time and thusly eliminate the mind, body, and soul of another person armed with the ability to also press that button?

The Premoniton Of The Premises For World War 3
This is a premonition and a possible prediction, but I hope that it does not come true. This is merely a way of expressing my thoughts and opinions on current political conflicts from around the world. In my opinion, all of these conflicts are at their near breaking points for becoming full blown military engagements that will destaballize the world even more.

Most of these conflicts are already in flux and have reached certain boiling points. Others are reaching these boiling points day by day. Many of them are under the radar of western news other than a quick story here or there, but these conflicts have been brewing for many years.


Allied Western Powers:
EU, USA, Japan, South Korea, Israel, India, Australasia (AU and NZ), Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Canada

Allied Anti-Western Powers:
North Korea, Iran, Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Pakistan's new regime when the current one falls apart, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, possibly China, Vietnam, and Mexico

Conflicts of Interest

Conflict #1:
North Korea, Russia, China vs. South Korea, Japan, USA (Nuclear)
North Korea lauches attack on South Korea, Japan, and possibly HI, or AK, or CA. The USA responds vigorously and Japan/SK move their military into positions for a full blown offensive. China remains stagnant on the issue, but is arming its border with North Korea ready to either fight on NK or the allies sides. With internal pressure within the CCP to resist the west, China could go against the grain and take sides with North Korea as an ally in a passive aggressive move against the west and mostly the USA in an attempt to grab more power away from the USA, this time mostly politically instead of economically.

Conflict #2:
Iran vs. Israel (Nuclear)
Israel vs. Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Syria (Terrorism)
Lebanon vs. Hezbollah (Regime Collapse, Terrorism)
Iran takes the opportunity to attack Israel to further it's power increase amongst Arab states and to take advantage of the nuclear chaos in the Pacific to make it's nuclear move. Israel responds with a nuclear retaliation. The Arab states surrounding Israel such as Syria and possibly Egypt coupled with Hezbollah and Al Qaeda make moves on Jerusalem, West Bank and other Israel settlements. A war between Israel and Arab allies against Arab enemies rages on in terrible bloodshed across the central areas of the Middle East region. Lebanon falls to Hezbollah terrorists and because of the USA's stretched military forces, the Iraqi border with Syria and Saudi Arabia become less stabilized and terrorist forces migrate towards the conflicts in Israel.

Conflict #3:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, USA vs. Taliban, Al Qaeda (Regime Collapse, Terrorism)
Pakistan vs. India (Nuclear)
Afghanistan, USA vs. Al Qaeda, Taliban (Regime Collapse, Terrorism)
Pakistan falls victim to the Taliban and the Taliban uses the nuclear chaos on two hemispheres to decide to launch a nuke at Pakistan's longtime nuclear neighbor India who makes a nuclear retaliation. Various terrorism occurs within India's borders and a nuclear arsenal has fallen into the hands of terrorists that are outspoken friends with Al Qaeda looking to assist them in an effort to attack other western interests in a future clandestine act of terrorism. Many nuclear weapons disappear among the chaos.

Conflict #4:
Honduras vs. Venezuela (Regime Collapse)
Honduras, USA, EU vs. Venezuela, Cuba, Russia (Cold War)
Venezuela makes a military action into Honduras looking to steal more power away from the USA from the historically strong alliance between Honduras and the US. Other nearby Central American powers are now weaker because of this bold move by Venezuela. Cuba quickly asserts its decidedly vocal alliance with Venezuela. Cuba also simultaneously asserts its position against the US as a sole western communist power. In concordance with its sudden vocal polarization against the US, Russia sees an opportunity to rekindle its Cuban amigos.

Conflict #5:
Russia, Moldova, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Georgia, China vs. USA, Poland, EU (Cold War)
Russia makes blatant chess moves against western interests attempting to bring more Kremlin control into Moldova, Cuba, Kazakhstan and Georgia. Russia asserts its continuation of communism advocacy and allies with Iran, North Korea and even Venezuela as strong oil powers with a superpower backing. Russia's recent economic rise has led itself to form a stronger force than during the Cold War. This time, Russia is for real, not quite as much as a show that it was during CCCP days. In its realization of a great opportunity with China and China's realization of a great opportunity to make waves in the world and emerge as the strongest of the strong, China and Russia become allies and China makes its decision against the western powers in North Korea for multiple reasons including angst against the Japanese from the second World War surfacing amidst the tensions.

Conflict #6:
Mexico, Drug Cartel vs. USA, Mexico (Drug War, Terrorism, Regime Collapse)
Amidst all of the world chaos, the gangs and violence within Mexico destabillizes the internal mechanisms of the corrupt government. The drug cartel takes a strong voice in border politics influencing even upper echelons of politics by forcing the Mexican president to declare the US as an enemy of the state because of it being a vast supplier of the arms that are causing bloodshed within its borders. Mexico decides to care less and less about border security and let's whoever cross whenever they like to cross. The USA tries to police its borders, but because of numerous political and government failures to keep the border safe, the military is called in to back up the border patrol. With a building military presence, the drug cartels feels pressured by the US and decides react with more violence & bold tactics instigating a war of terrorism and street-gang-guerrilla warfare against the US by striking everyone from civilians to law enforcement and the US military.

Conflict #1 and Conflict #2 independently occuring could easily trigger any of the other conflicts including whichever of #1 and #2 that does not occur first. Conflict #3 would grease the wheels of the machine of World War and would easily act as a great catalyst for #1 and or #2, but in itself would not necessarily lead to the World conflict. The only other conflict of interest that is sufficiently high-profile enough to set forth events and place chess pieces on the chessboard in a checkmate position would be Conflict #5 which might turn for the worse or smolder and simmer for a long time in a second Cold War. All of the other conflicts are containable and slightly preventable through many different means such as diplomacy, secret operations, and wielding of global power from the UN, USA, or a meeting of the G(x) minds to bring about a resolution averting a serious engagement. So, in summary, #1, #2, and #5 are the most significant and volatile situations that are not just flammable, but moreso explosive for forming the foundation of a World War to put into the great book of history of the first Holocene epoch.